Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: 9E 5099 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–24%.

Safest bet that day 9E 5099 MSN 06:58 → DTW 09:21 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5214 MSN 18:29 → DTW 20:52 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


9E 5099 Endeavor	MSN 06:58	DTW 09:21	7%	4%	1.5%	no record
9E 5385 Endeavor	MSN 09:25	DTW 11:48	9%	4%	2.3%	no record
DL 844 Delta Flight history →	MSN 13:31	DTW 15:49	14%	6%	1.0%	81%
DL 5214 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSN 18:29	DTW 20:52	24%	12%	3.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON