tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: UA 3482 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 3482 United flown by Republic Flight history → MSN 06:04 EWR 09:24 8% 4% 3.1% 92%
UA 3675 United flown by Republic Flight history → MSN 11:10 EWR 14:23 22% 9% 4.0% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSN 04:57 → ORD 06:01UA 5902 · flown by SkyWest 1h 48m Chicago ORD 07:49 → EWR 11:02UA 1273 5h 05m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 1h 08m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 33m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:39 → ORD 07:43UA 2137 3h 08m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 6h 38m 99% 69%
AmericanDetails → MSN 07:00 → CLT 10:16AA 1002 1h 57m Charlotte CLT 12:13 → EWR 14:04AA 1697 6h 04m 95% 65%
DeltaDetails → MSN 17:00 → ATL 20:24DL 2599 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 6h 58m 96% 62%
UnitedDetails → MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360 1h 17m Denver DEN 11:37 → EWR 17:31UA 1233 7h 41m 93% 56%
DeltaDetails → MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 5h 47m 93% 51%
AmericanDetails → MSN 15:37 → ORD 16:48AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 3h 21m Chicago ORD 20:09 → EWR 23:30AA 2549 6h 53m 97% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MSN 18:28 → DTW 20:51DL 5214 · flown by Endeavor 49m Detroit DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609 3h 57m 70% 40%
AmericanDetails → MSN 15:37 → ORD 16:48AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 48m Chicago ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00AA 3253 4h 23m 43% 17%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON