Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 3596 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–45%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3596 MSN 05:01 → ORD 06:03 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1851 MSN 16:06 → ORD 17:07 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3596 Envoy	MSN 05:01	ORD 06:03	12%	6%	2.5%	no record
UA 5902 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 04:59	ORD 06:02	14%	7%	4.0%	89%
YX 4460 Republic	MSN 09:52	ORD 11:02	16%	7%	3.5%	no record
UA 2137 United Flight history →	MSN 06:39	ORD 07:40	17%	8%	1.5%	80%
MQ 3582 Envoy	MSN 06:12	ORD 07:14	17%	6%	2.7%	no record
UA 394 United	MSN 08:20	ORD 09:26	22%	9%	2.3%	no record
YX 4717 Republic	MSN 11:21	ORD 12:31	26%	10%	5.1%	no record
G7 4535 GoJet	MSN 10:32	ORD 11:46	26%	9%	5.1%	no record
YX 4441 Republic	MSN 19:04	ORD 20:13	33%	15%	3.4%	no record
UA 1400 United	MSN 14:43	ORD 15:57	34%	17%	2.1%	no record
OO 5586 SkyWest	MSN 18:37	ORD 19:40	40%	15%	5.1%	no record
UA 5383 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSN 12:40	ORD 13:43	44%	17%	7.3%	70%worse than usual
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSN 15:37	ORD 16:47	45%	17%	6.5%	41%
UA 1851 United	MSN 16:06	ORD 17:07	45%	20%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON