tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: AA 634 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 29%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 634 American Flight history → MSN 05:57 PHX 07:34 16% 7% 1.9% 86%
AA 1734 American MSN 14:50 PHX 16:38 29% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSN 05:48 → ATL 08:57DL 1160 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796 8h 15m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → MSN 08:52 → MSP 10:10DL 4103 · flown by SkyWest 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 5h 54m 95% 76%
AmericanDetails → MSN 07:00 → CLT 10:16AA 1002 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 13:18 → PHX 14:45AA 1044 9h 45m 99% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSN 08:50 → DEN 10:20UA 2360 3h 10m Denver DEN 13:30 → PHX 14:41UA 631 7h 51m 99% 69%
DeltaDetails → MSN 11:07 → ATL 14:13DL 2681 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:44 → PHX 17:46DL 836 8h 39m 97% 67%
AmericanDetails → MSN 05:41 → DCA 08:56AA 5374 · flown by PSA 1h 04m Washington DCA 10:00 → PHX 11:44AA 1218 8h 03m 90% 67%
AmericanDetails → MSN 07:39 → DFW 10:01AA 797 3h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:00 → PHX 14:33AA 1507 8h 54m 97% 66%
UnitedDetails → MSN 06:39 → ORD 07:43UA 2137 2h 40m Chicago ORD 10:23 → PHX 12:20UA 2225 7h 41m 98% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSN 17:52 → PHL 21:10AA 5532 · flown by PSA 49m Philadelphia PHL 21:59 → PHX 00:02 +1AA 2622 8h 10m 67% 45%
AmericanDetails → MSN 15:37 → ORD 16:48AA 4038 · flown by Envoy 54m Chicago ORD 17:42 → PHX 19:30AA 3137 5h 53m 46% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON