tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 1 h behind Missoula). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSO 05:55 → MSP 09:28DL 2907 2h 10m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 29m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSO 06:05 → DEN 08:11UA 1026 3h 43m Denver DEN 11:54 → SAN 13:23UA 1940 8h 18m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSO 13:05 → SLC 14:45DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06DL 1252 6h 01m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 21:21 → SAN 23:16UA 442 7h 57m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSO 15:28 → MSP 19:05DL 362 2h 42m Minneapolis MSP 21:47 → SAN 23:30DL 2146 9h 02m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → MSO 10:36 → DEN 12:48UA 5484 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m Denver DEN 15:55 → SAN 17:20UA 1281 7h 44m 100% 70%
UnitedDetails → MSO 14:25 → DEN 16:30UA 1436 2h 50m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 7h 21m 92% 62%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 16:28 → SEA 16:58AS 660 3h 42m Seattle SEA 20:40 → SAN 23:08AS 254 7h 40m 99% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSO 16:19 → SFO 17:50UA 5417 · flown by SkyWest 1h 01m San Francisco SFO 18:51 → SAN 20:32UA 1577 5h 13m 73% 52%
AlaskaDetails → MSO 16:28 → SEA 16:58AS 660 50m Seattle SEA 17:48 → SAN 20:19AS 791 4h 51m 47% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON