Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Asheville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Asheville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 52m	99%	84%
United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 52m Denver	DEN 09:45 → AVL 14:50UA 1992	8h 05m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → AVL 14:40DL 3099	6h 40m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → AVL 21:16DL 3071	7h 31m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:47 → ATL 19:19DL 1036	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	6h 59m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:09 → AVL 17:17DL 3101	5h 45m	97%	72%
American Details →	MSP 05:56 → DFW 08:18AA 1395	3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:10 → AVL 15:38AA 569	8h 42m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	2h 52m New York	LGA 16:37 → AVL 18:37DL 4665 · flown by Endeavor	7h 32m	99%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 18:09 → ATL 21:46DL 1026	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	4h 37m	74%	57%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:47 → ATL 19:19DL 1036	49m Atlanta	ATL 20:08 → AVL 21:16DL 3071	4h 29m	61%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON