Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2007 at 07:06 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 2007 MSP 07:06 → BDL 10:43 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2871 MSP 20:00 → BDL 23:39 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2007 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:06	BDL 10:43	9%	3%	0.8%	84%
DL 2285 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:26	BDL 18:04	20%	6%	0.7%	78%
DL 2871 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:00	BDL 23:39	27%	7%	1.3%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON