Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 8949 Delta	MSP 13:02	BUF 16:03	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 1749 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:22	BUF 18:24	16%	6%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:21 → BUF 15:28DL 2266	7h 28m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 15:47 → ATL 19:19DL 1036	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 23:02 → BUF 01:08 +1DL 2334	8h 21m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → BUF 17:45DL 2050	8h 19m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719	1h 34m New York	LGA 12:18 → BUF 13:19DL 5362 · flown by Endeavor	5h 14m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → LGA 13:45DL 2764	2h 31m New York	LGA 16:16 → BUF 17:52DL 5792 · flown by Republic	6h 47m	98%	65%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	2h 40m Denver	DEN 17:28 → BUF 22:39UA 731	8h 03m	99%	64%
American Details →	MSP 18:17 → ORD 19:48AA 4746 · flown by Republic	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → BUF 00:09 +1AA 564	4h 52m	80%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	58m Chicago	ORD 17:56 → BUF 20:35UA 1335	4h 19m	57%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON