Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Seattle, leaving 14:56, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555	1h 53m Seattle	SEA 18:43 → FAI 21:27AS 284	9h 31m	97%	69%
Alaska Details →	MSP 07:21 → SEA 08:45AS 387	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 12:00 → FAI 14:38AS 96	10h 17m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	MSP 19:21 → SEA 20:56AS 510	1h 46m Seattle	SEA 22:42 → FAI 01:27 +1AS 351	9h 06m	94%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48DL 881	53m Seattle	SEA 21:41 → FAI 00:30 +1DL 2186	8h 35m	67%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON