Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 4680 at 13:14, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4680 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 13:14	HPN 16:56	18%	6%	1.3%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach White Plains on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (White Plains is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 42m Detroit	DTW 10:29 → HPN 12:17DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	5h 13m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:26 → HPN 12:46DL 2973	6h 26m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 14:23 → HPN 16:12DL 4658 · flown by Endeavor	6h 12m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 12:10 → HPN 14:33DL 5435 · flown by Endeavor	6h 33m	97%	79%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 11:45 → HPN 13:46AA 5180 · flown by PSA	6h 27m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → HPN 18:12DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	8h 46m	100%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON