Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: SY 8651 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day SY 8651 MSP 06:19 → IAD 09:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3783 MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


SY 8651 Sun Country	MSP 06:19	IAD 09:46	10%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 2169 United	MSP 11:53	IAD 15:21	13%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 3699 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 07:17	IAD 10:46	14%	5%	0.8%	88%
DL 4129 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 19:50	IAD 23:20	22%	8%	1.0%	78%
DL 3783 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 14:30	IAD 18:04	24%	8%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON