tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 3807 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → MSP 13:30 ICT 15:10 24% 4% 0.7% 90%worse than usual
OO 3787 SkyWest MSP 20:06 ICT 22:01 29% 7% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wichita on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → ICT 12:23DL 828 7h 03m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 3h 02m Denver DEN 09:55 → ICT 12:27UA 5497 · flown by SkyWest 6h 42m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:56 → DFW 08:18AA 1395 1h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → ICT 10:55AA 4142 · flown by Envoy 4h 59m 92% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 38m Denver DEN 13:59 → ICT 16:34UA 5454 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 100% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:32 → ATL 14:04DL 1046 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 17:19 → ICT 18:38DL 2128 8h 06m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → MSP 15:47 → ATL 19:19DL 1036 1h 59m Atlanta ATL 21:18 → ICT 22:40DL 2959 6h 53m 95% 71%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 1h 08m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12UA 4809 · flown by SkyWest 5h 12m 94% 66%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 2h 50m Denver DEN 17:38 → ICT 20:12UA 1788 6h 36m 99% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSP 19:01 → DFW 21:28AA 2406 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:26 → ICT 23:53AA 3691 · flown by Envoy 4h 52m 63% 49%
UnitedDetails → MSP 19:03 → ORD 20:37UA 1237 1h 07m Chicago ORD 21:44 → ICT 23:48UA 424 4h 45m 65% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON