Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OO 3804 at 07:51 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day OO 3804 MSP 07:51 → MKE 09:11 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3848 MSP 18:03 → MKE 19:24 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3804 SkyWest	MSP 07:51	MKE 09:11	12%	5%	1.6%	no record
DL 561 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:05	MKE 11:17	12%	3%	1.0%	80%
DL 2006 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:54	MKE 15:09	21%	6%	1.2%	83%
OO 3738 SkyWest	MSP 19:45	MKE 21:05	21%	9%	1.1%	no record
OO 3821 SkyWest	MSP 17:14	MKE 18:35	24%	12%	1.0%	no record
OO 3848 SkyWest	MSP 18:03	MKE 19:24	24%	11%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON