Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1047 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 1047 MSP 07:26 → PHX 08:37 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest SY 607 MSP 16:31 → PHX 17:54 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1047 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:26	PHX 08:37	14%	3%	0.9%	87%
DL 2208 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:28	PHX 10:43	16%	3%	0.9%	77%
DL 2274 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:32	PHX 12:46	19%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 3143 American Flight history →	MSP 07:41	PHX 09:00	21%	4%	1.2%	85%
DL 2284 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:33	PHX 15:46	23%	6%	0.8%	82%
SY 603 Sun Country	MSP 08:16	PHX 09:31	23%	5%	1.9%	no record
DL 2297 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:18	PHX 20:30	30%	9%	0.9%	73%
AA 408 American Flight history →	MSP 14:28	PHX 15:44	30%	8%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
SY 607 Sun Country	MSP 16:31	PHX 17:54	33%	10%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON