tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2081 Delta Flight history → MSP 11:00 SNA 12:54 21% 4% 0.8% 73%
DL 2107 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:28 SNA 20:20 31% 8% 1.0% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 14:22 → LAS 15:42DL 1542 2h 51m Las Vegas LAS 18:33 → SNA 19:49DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest 7h 27m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 04m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 7h 52m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSP 14:51 → SEA 16:33DL 877 3h 01m Seattle SEA 19:34 → SNA 22:26DL 3695 · flown by SkyWest 9h 35m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555 2h 20m Seattle SEA 19:10 → SNA 22:01AS 631 9h 05m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 11m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → MSP 05:56 → DFW 08:18AA 1395 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:46 → SNA 11:15AA 1939 7h 19m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 59m Houston IAH 12:29 → SNA 14:05UA 1533 8h 30m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 47m Denver DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666 5h 22m 82% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON