Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 468 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 468 MSY 05:50 → DFW 07:40 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest F9 4993 MSY 17:18 → DFW 19:12 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 468 American Flight history →	MSY 05:50	DFW 07:40	13%	5%	1.2%	87%
AA 2157 American Flight history →	MSY 09:35	DFW 11:15	21%	6%	0.9%	76%
AA 1470 American Flight history →	MSY 08:10	DFW 10:06	21%	6%	1.0%	77%
AA 1684 American	MSY 10:59	DFW 12:48	21%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 1650 American	MSY 12:37	DFW 14:15	23%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 379 American	MSY 15:43	DFW 17:27	35%	10%	1.1%	no record
AA 2291 American Flight history →	MSY 19:43	DFW 21:29	38%	12%	1.2%	62%
AA 1811 American	MSY 18:19	DFW 19:59	40%	12%	1.3%	no record
F9 4993 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 17:18	DFW 19:12	45%	16%	1.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON