Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OO 5365 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–23%.

Safest bet that day OO 5365 MSY 05:10 → IAH 06:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2119 MSY 17:21 → IAH 18:49 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5365 SkyWest	MSY 05:10	IAH 06:48	11%	6%	1.5%	no record
UA 2105 United Flight history →	MSY 09:53	IAH 11:12	14%	6%	0.8%	90%
YV 6223 Mesa	MSY 19:08	IAH 20:36	16%	9%	1.9%	no record
UA 1532 United Flight history →	MSY 15:35	IAH 17:03	19%	8%	0.8%	81%
UA 2253 United Flight history →	MSY 12:07	IAH 13:26	20%	6%	0.8%	80%
UA 2296 United Flight history →	MSY 14:21	IAH 15:40	23%	7%	0.8%	85%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	MSY 07:00	IAH 08:19	23%	5%	1.0%	73%
UA 2119 United	MSY 17:21	IAH 18:49	23%	10%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON