Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3123 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3123 MSY 05:00 → MCO 07:55 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest MX 611 MSY 14:34 → MCO 17:31 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3123 Southwest	MSY 05:00	MCO 07:55	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 2218 Southwest	MSY 06:35	MCO 09:31	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3147 Southwest	MSY 10:29	MCO 13:24	14%	4%	1.0%	no record
WN 3128 Southwest	MSY 21:54	MCO 00:44	18%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3126 Southwest	MSY 16:24	MCO 19:19	23%	10%	0.7%	no record
F9 1432 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 19:54	MCO 22:59	24%	12%	1.8%	81%
WN 2747 Southwest	MSY 19:04	MCO 21:54	25%	9%	0.7%	no record
MX 611 Breeze	MSY 14:34	MCO 17:31	25%	8%	2.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON