Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2341 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 2341 MSY 06:13 → ORD 08:52 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1301 MSY 14:18 → ORD 16:54 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2341 American	MSY 06:13	ORD 08:52	16%	7%	2.0%	no record
UA 2844 United	MSY 06:51	ORD 09:23	18%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 2529 American	MSY 08:13	ORD 10:52	19%	10%	1.8%	no record
UA 1677 United Flight history →	MSY 10:25	ORD 13:02	30%	19%	1.3%	83%worse than usual
YX 4464 Republic	MSY 11:07	ORD 13:42	31%	13%	3.8%	no record
OO 5375 SkyWest	MSY 17:40	ORD 20:15	43%	20%	2.4%	no record
UA 1301 United Flight history →	MSY 14:18	ORD 16:54	44%	22%	1.1%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON