Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 3162 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 3162 MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest DL 1093 MYR 18:48 → ATL 20:12 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3162 Delta Flight history →	MYR 06:00	ATL 07:19	6%	3%	3.2%	94%
DL 3047 Delta Flight history →	MYR 10:46	ATL 12:17	9%	4%	3.7%	89%
DL 3182 Delta Flight history →	MYR 13:51	ATL 15:14	13%	5%	3.1%	88%
DL 1093 Delta Flight history →	MYR 18:48	ATL 20:12	19%	7%	2.5%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON