Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: YX 4469 at 12:01 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4469 Republic	MYR 12:01	DCA 13:44	15%	5%	5.4%	no record
MQ 4169 Envoy	MYR 20:07	DCA 21:43	30%	11%	6.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380	5h 27m	97%	81%
American Details →	MYR 06:05 → CLT 07:12AA 3296	2h 15m Charlotte	CLT 09:27 → DCA 11:12AA 3043	5h 07m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MYR 10:46 → ATL 12:17DL 3047	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	6h 44m	99%	70%
Delta Details →	MYR 18:48 → ATL 20:12DL 1093	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	5h 04m	90%	66%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	3h 21m Detroit	DTW 16:52 → DCA 18:31DL 2030	6h 57m	99%	63%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950	4h 46m	92%	62%
American Details →	MYR 11:22 → PHL 13:18AA 6107 · flown by Piedmont	3h 04m Philadelphia	PHL 16:22 → DCA 17:31AA 5363 · flown by PSA	6h 09m	95%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON