Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 1145 at 11:34, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1145 Delta Flight history →	MYR 11:34	DTW 13:31	12%	5%	3.5%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 08:50 → DTW 10:46DL 643	4h 46m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MYR 10:46 → ATL 12:17DL 3047	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	4h 56m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 19:11 → DTW 21:11DL 1262	7h 20m	97%	71%
American Details →	MYR 09:17 → CLT 10:24AA 2431	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 11:24 → DTW 13:08AA 1683	3h 51m	84%	66%
Delta Details →	MYR 18:48 → ATL 20:12DL 1093	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → DTW 23:44DL 651	4h 56m	88%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MYR 19:09 → PHL 20:54AA 6039 · flown by Piedmont	1h 22m Philadelphia	PHL 22:16 → DTW 00:15 +1AA 5418 · flown by PSA	5h 06m	72%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON