Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, YX 3402 at 17:04, with a 34% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 3402 Republic	MYR 17:04	ORD 18:38	34%	15%	6.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 06:00 → ATL 07:19DL 3162	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147	5h 10m	96%	75%
American Details →	MYR 06:05 → CLT 07:12AA 3296	3h 23m Charlotte	CLT 10:35 → ORD 11:42AA 2534	6h 37m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	MYR 18:48 → ATL 20:12DL 1093	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199	6h 05m	94%	71%
American Details →	MYR 15:18 → PHL 17:25AA 5896 · flown by Piedmont	3h 46m Philadelphia	PHL 21:11 → ORD 22:28AA 490	8h 10m	94%	56%
Delta Details →	MYR 10:46 → ATL 12:17DL 3047	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 15:25 → ORD 16:35DL 2738	6h 49m	99%	55%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 15:56 → ORD 16:23DL 2358	5h 49m	98%	52%
American Details →	MYR 09:17 → CLT 10:24AA 2431	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 13:10 → ORD 14:21AA 2530	6h 04m	84%	47%
Delta Details →	MYR 13:51 → ATL 15:14DL 3182	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 17:20 → ORD 18:45DL 2879	5h 54m	93%	46%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MYR 18:50 → EWR 20:59UA 3714 · flown by Republic	57m Newark	EWR 21:56 → ORD 23:25UA 1206	5h 35m	58%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON