Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 19–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6107 MYR 11:22 → PHL 13:18 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 6039 MYR 19:09 → PHL 20:54 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6107 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	MYR 11:22	PHL 13:18	19%	7%	5.6%	82%
AA 5896 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	MYR 15:18	PHL 17:25	24%	11%	4.6%	85%
AA 6039 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	MYR 19:09	PHL 20:54	28%	12%	5.7%	91%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON