Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 37 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 788 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–57%.

Safest bet that day UA 788 EWR 06:30 → MCO 09:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 699 LGA 20:59 → MCO 23:52 · 57% chance 15+ min late · usually 41% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 788 United Flight history →	EWR 06:30	MCO 09:16	9%	2%	1.0%	96%
B6 927 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 06:02	MCO 08:47	11%	3%	2.1%	90%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	LGA 07:00	MCO 09:43	12%	3%	1.5%	90%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	12%	3%	1.3%	84%
UA 411 United Flight history →	EWR 07:46	MCO 10:34	12%	4%	1.0%	98%
AA 902 American	LGA 07:56	MCO 10:42	15%	4%	1.7%	no record
F9 1659 Frontier Flight history →	EWR 05:51	MCO 08:39	16%	5%	1.8%	83%
B6 599 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 07:36	MCO 10:22	16%	5%	2.0%	89%
UA 486 United	EWR 09:12	MCO 12:04	18%	6%	1.1%	no record
B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:39	MCO 10:29	20%	7%	1.4%	75%
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	21%	4%	1.9%	78%
UA 2396 United Flight history →	EWR 11:10	MCO 14:03	21%	8%	1.4%	87%
UA 1739 United Flight history →	EWR 10:01	MCO 12:54	21%	7%	1.6%	76%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:27	MCO 14:17	22%	5%	2.2%	81%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	LGA 11:49	MCO 14:42	24%	8%	2.6%	80%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	EWR 13:03	MCO 15:54	25%	11%	1.2%	81%
B6 499 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 10:00	MCO 12:55	27%	10%	2.2%	65%
B6 183 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:51	MCO 12:44	28%	8%	2.6%	81%
UA 2345 United	EWR 14:05	MCO 16:55	28%	12%	1.2%	no record
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:59	MCO 23:19	29%	12%	2.2%	67%
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:15	MCO 15:11	30%	13%	3.1%	69%
UA 1268 United Flight history →	EWR 15:28	MCO 18:27	31%	18%	1.3%	79%worse than usual
B6 127 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 13:32	MCO 16:18	32%	15%	2.7%	75%
DL 1543 Delta	JFK 15:13	MCO 18:00	35%	12%	2.3%	no record
UA 1900 United Flight history →	EWR 16:55	MCO 19:56	35%	18%	1.3%	77%worse than usual
DL 8801 Delta	JFK 21:15	MCO 00:03	35%	13%	2.2%	no record
DL 2520 Delta Flight history →	LGA 15:30	MCO 18:52	35%	15%	2.0%	62%
UA 1863 United	EWR 18:54	MCO 21:45	39%	19%	1.5%	no record
UA 1190 United Flight history →	EWR 20:57	MCO 23:59	40%	21%	1.9%	73%worse than usual
AA 1943 American Flight history →	LGA 15:13	MCO 17:58	41%	15%	2.1%	67%
B6 399 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 14:29	MCO 17:28	41%	20%	2.9%	61%
DL 2561 Delta Flight history →	LGA 17:59	MCO 21:15	42%	21%	2.8%	68%
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:51	MCO 17:30	45%	20%	3.6%	60%
DL 2540 Delta Flight history →	LGA 19:55	MCO 23:03	45%	26%	3.3%	59%
B6 283 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:47	MCO 23:34	51%	23%	3.7%	62%worse than usual
B6 1827 JetBlue Flight history →	EWR 20:08	MCO 22:55	52%	29%	4.1%	67%worse than usual
B6 699 JetBlue Flight history →	LGA 20:59	MCO 23:52	57%	36%	3.8%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON