Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 3435 at 10:49, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3435 Southwest	OAK 10:49	BOI 13:29	11%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boise on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boise is 1 h ahead of Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OAK 06:28 → SLC 09:25DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	1h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → BOI 12:20DL 2095	4h 52m	98%	85%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 08:55AS 705	3h 59m Seattle	SEA 12:54 → BOI 15:21AS 467	7h 26m	99%	73%
Southwest Details →	OAK 17:36 → LAS 19:13WN 2274	3h 01m Las Vegas	LAS 22:14 → BOI 01:05 +1WN 2253	6h 29m	100%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON