Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 847 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 08:25	HNL 10:59	17%	4%	0.8%	87%
WN 808 Southwest Flight history →	OAK 11:22	HNL 13:57	18%	4%	0.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	2h 04m Kahului	OGG 11:21 → HNL 12:15AS 1085	8h 15m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:30 → SLC 09:26DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316	10h 49m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	OAK 10:33 → LIH 13:22AS 967	2h 51m Lihue	LIH 16:13 → HNL 17:06AS 1124	9h 33m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 08:56AS 705	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 12:10 → HNL 14:58AS 899	11h 03m	99%	58%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	49m Kahului	OGG 10:06 → HNL 10:48AS 1075	6h 48m	70%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON