Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3663 Southwest	OAK 08:30	LIH 11:13	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 967 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 10:33	LIH 13:22	14%	2%	1.1%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 11:22 → HNL 13:57WN 808	3h 23m Honolulu	HNL 17:20 → LIH 18:16WN 1972	9h 54m	99%	86%
Alaska Details →	OAK 07:00 → OGG 09:17AS 923	2h 59m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	9h 06m	99%	73%
Alaska Details →	OAK 08:25 → HNL 10:59AS 847	2h 10m Honolulu	HNL 13:09 → LIH 14:03AS 1083	8h 38m	97%	67%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 08:56AS 705	2h 32m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	10h 45m	98%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON