Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:25, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 923 Alaska Flight history →	OAK 07:00	OGG 09:17	8%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 3181 Southwest	OAK 13:57	OGG 16:29	16%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Oakland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	OAK 11:22 → HNL 13:57WN 808	3h 28m Honolulu	HNL 17:25 → OGG 18:21WN 1983	9h 59m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	OAK 06:30 → SLC 09:26DL 4061 · flown by SkyWest	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623	10h 38m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	OAK 08:25 → HNL 10:59AS 847	3h 50m Honolulu	HNL 14:49 → OGG 15:43AS 1136	10h 18m	99%	75%
Alaska Details →	OAK 10:33 → LIH 13:22AS 967	1h 08m Lihue	LIH 14:30 → OGG 15:19AS 1260	7h 46m	94%	66%
Alaska Details →	OAK 06:55 → SEA 08:56AS 705	1h 19m Seattle	SEA 10:15 → OGG 13:19AS 929	9h 24m	92%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON