Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3188 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3188 OAK 05:00 → PHX 06:59 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3192 OAK 18:00 → PHX 20:03 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3188 Southwest	OAK 05:00	PHX 06:59	4%	1%	2.4%	no record
WN 3189 Southwest	OAK 08:21	PHX 10:24	12%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 3190 Southwest	OAK 10:46	PHX 12:49	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 3191 Southwest	OAK 15:35	PHX 17:38	24%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 768 Southwest	OAK 20:15	PHX 22:17	28%	7%	0.7%	no record
WN 3192 Southwest	OAK 18:00	PHX 20:03	28%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON