Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3204 at 07:14 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–17%.

Safest bet that day WN 3204 OAK 07:14 → SNA 08:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 854 OAK 14:01 → SNA 15:35 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3204 Southwest	OAK 07:14	SNA 08:45	5%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 3205 Southwest	OAK 08:30	SNA 10:01	8%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3206 Southwest	OAK 10:25	SNA 12:01	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3211 Southwest	OAK 20:30	SNA 22:03	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3207 Southwest	OAK 12:30	SNA 14:06	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3209 Southwest	OAK 16:19	SNA 17:55	17%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1265 Southwest	OAK 18:25	SNA 20:01	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 854 Southwest	OAK 14:01	SNA 15:35	17%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON