Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 28 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3213 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 3213 OGG 07:19 → HNL 08:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1125 OGG 13:44 → HNL 14:37 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3213 Southwest	OGG 07:19	HNL 08:14	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3212 Southwest	OGG 05:59	HNL 06:54	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3214 Southwest	OGG 09:49	HNL 10:44	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3218 Southwest	OGG 17:29	HNL 18:24	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3215 Southwest	OGG 11:59	HNL 12:54	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3219 Southwest	OGG 18:59	HNL 19:54	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3217 Southwest	OGG 15:48	HNL 16:43	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1025 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 07:15	HNL 07:54	12%	3%	1.4%	88%
WN 3216 Southwest	OGG 13:49	HNL 14:44	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1015 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 05:52	HNL 06:45	14%	3%	1.5%	86%
AS 1435 Alaska	OGG 17:45	HNL 18:37	18%	5%	1.5%	no record
AS 1045 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 08:41	HNL 09:20	18%	3%	1.3%	87%
AS 1055 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 09:18	HNL 09:58	18%	3%	1.3%	91%
AS 1175 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 18:33	HNL 19:26	18%	4%	1.5%	69%
AS 1085 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 11:21	HNL 12:14	20%	4%	1.2%	84%
AS 1165 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 16:28	HNL 17:21	21%	6%	1.2%	65%
AS 1195 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 20:47	HNL 21:26	21%	5%	1.5%	73%
AS 1185 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 19:43	HNL 20:22	21%	5%	1.5%	74%
AS 1155 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:57	HNL 16:50	21%	4%	1.6%	68%
AS 1425 Alaska	OGG 14:07	HNL 14:59	22%	5%	1.4%	no record
AS 1065 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 09:45	HNL 10:27	22%	3%	1.3%	82%
AS 1145 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:04	HNL 15:45	22%	5%	1.5%	65%
AS 1095 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:07	HNL 13:00	22%	5%	1.5%	77%
AS 1135 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 14:33	HNL 15:26	23%	6%	1.4%	67%
AS 1415 Alaska	OGG 10:11	HNL 11:03	24%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 1075 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:06	HNL 10:48	24%	4%	1.3%	80%
AS 1105 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:01	HNL 13:54	25%	5%	1.4%	84%
AS 1125 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:44	HNL 14:37	26%	6%	1.4%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON