tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AS 1129 at 17:39, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1129 Alaska Flight history → OGG 17:39 ITO 18:17 23% 6% 0.8% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hilo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → OGG 05:52 → HNL 06:46AS 1015 3h 15m Honolulu HNL 10:01 → ITO 10:55AS 1032 5h 03m 100% 80%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065 3h 50m Honolulu HNL 14:17 → ITO 15:13AS 1072 5h 28m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 15:04 → HNL 15:45AS 1145 3h 35m Honolulu HNL 19:20 → ITO 20:29AS 1122 5h 25m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 16:28 → HNL 17:22AS 1165 3h 41m Honolulu HNL 21:03 → ITO 22:12AS 1132 5h 44m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 13:44 → HNL 14:38AS 1125 3h 29m Honolulu HNL 18:07 → ITO 19:16AS 1112 5h 32m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 09:18 → HNL 09:58AS 1055 3h 33m Honolulu HNL 13:31 → ITO 14:27AS 1062 5h 09m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 12:07 → HNL 13:01AS 1095 3h 54m Honolulu HNL 16:55 → ITO 18:04AS 1102 5h 57m 100% 73%
AlaskaDetails → OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045 2h 58m Honolulu HNL 12:18 → ITO 13:14AS 1052 4h 33m 100% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON