Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 12:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3221 Southwest	OGG 20:45	LAS 05:16	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 932 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 10:36	LAS 19:10	18%	4%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	1h 16m San Francisco	SFO 21:15 → LAS 23:10UA 406	8h 10m	94%	71%
Alaska Details →	OGG 09:45 → HNL 10:27AS 1065	2h 58m Honolulu	HNL 13:25 → LAS 22:10AS 876	9h 25m	100%	71%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 43m San Francisco	SFO 16:52 → LAS 18:43UA 751	8h 33m	98%	70%
United Details →	OGG 13:04 → LAX 21:21UA 418	1h 13m Los Angeles	LAX 22:34 → LAS 23:46UA 1546	7h 42m	92%	70%
Alaska Details →	OGG 05:52 → HNL 06:46AS 1015	1h 09m Honolulu	HNL 07:55 → LAS 16:39AS 806	7h 47m	92%	67%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	2h 39m Seattle	SEA 18:21 → LAS 20:49AS 523	10h 49m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON