Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 68% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 558 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 21:52	PDX 06:36	11%	3%	0.7%	84%
AS 890 Alaska	OGG 11:14	PDX 19:54	14%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 20:47 → HNL 21:26AS 1195	2h 18m Honolulu	HNL 23:44 → PDX 08:36 +1AS 879	8h 49m	99%	77%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	1h 43m San Francisco	SFO 16:52 → PDX 18:46UA 8212	8h 36m	98%	75%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	2h 34m San Francisco	SFO 22:33 → PDX 00:23 +1UA 8182	9h 23m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	3h 02m Honolulu	HNL 12:22 → PDX 20:50AS 814	9h 09m	100%	71%
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:36 → LAS 19:10AS 932	1h 24m Las Vegas	LAS 20:34 → PDX 22:55AS 790	9h 19m	92%	69%
Alaska Details →	OGG 10:32 → SFO 18:27AS 978	2h 59m San Francisco	SFO 21:26 → PDX 23:22AS 2023 · flown by Horizon	9h 50m	98%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON