Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:18, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1526 Southwest	OGG 20:25	PHX 05:07	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 432 American Flight history →	OGG 21:17	PHX 06:00	13%	8%	0.7%	94%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 07:15 → HNL 07:54AS 1025	3h 56m Honolulu	HNL 11:50 → PHX 20:48AS 836	10h 33m	100%	77%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 49m San Francisco	SFO 18:58 → PHX 20:59UA 1375	10h 49m	98%	69%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	1h 03m San Francisco	SFO 21:02 → PHX 23:01UA 1653	8h 01m	89%	66%
Alaska Details →	OGG 07:00 → SEA 15:42AS 246	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 18:52 → PHX 21:42AS 632	11h 42m	100%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON