Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3224 at 21:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3224 OGG 21:55 → SAN 06:11 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 203 OGG 12:22 → SAN 20:43 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3224 Southwest	OGG 21:55	SAN 06:11	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 484 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 23:03	SAN 07:20	21%	6%	1.0%	76%
AS 203 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:22	SAN 20:43	24%	6%	1.0%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	OGG 13:05 → LAX 21:30DL 463	1h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 22:45 → SAN 23:42DL 3746 · flown by SkyWest	7h 37m	89%	74%
Alaska Details →	OGG 19:43 → HNL 20:22AS 1185	1h 37m Honolulu	HNL 21:59 → SAN 06:29 +1AS 93	7h 46m	94%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON