Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 394 at 21:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 394 OGG 21:15 → SEA 05:54 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AS 930 OGG 12:55 → SEA 21:25 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 394 Delta Flight history →	OGG 21:15	SEA 05:54	10%	4%	0.8%	96%
AS 246 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 07:00	SEA 15:42	12%	3%	1.1%	93%
AS 206 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 21:40	SEA 06:17	17%	5%	1.2%	82%
AS 244 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 15:15	SEA 23:59	23%	8%	1.1%	85%
AS 930 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 12:55	SEA 21:25	29%	8%	1.2%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	1h 43m Honolulu	HNL 11:03 → SEA 19:55AS 267	8h 14m	99%	71%
Alaska Details →	OGG 20:47 → HNL 21:26AS 1195	1h 54m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → SEA 08:00 +1AS 900	8h 13m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	OGG 19:43 → HNL 20:22AS 1185	1h 09m Honolulu	HNL 21:31 → SEA 06:32 +1AS 854	7h 49m	84%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON