Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 10:06, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 397 Delta Flight history →	OGG 20:08	SLC 06:00	10%	4%	1.1%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 4 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 26m San Francisco	SFO 18:35 → SLC 21:36UA 1552	10h 26m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	3h 29m Honolulu	HNL 12:49 → SLC 22:44AS 715	10h 03m	100%	73%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	55m San Francisco	SFO 20:54 → SLC 23:59UA 5753 · flown by SkyWest	7h 59m	85%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON