Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 09:45, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 960 Alaska Flight history →	OGG 13:57	SMF 22:03	24%	6%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	OGG 10:31 → KOA 11:24AS 1030	2h 23m Kailua/Kona	KOA 13:47 → SMF 22:08AS 843	8h 37m	99%	83%
United Details →	OGG 07:10 → SFO 15:09UA 1958	3h 39m San Francisco	SFO 18:48 → SMF 19:56UA 5796 · flown by SkyWest	9h 46m	98%	75%
Alaska Details →	OGG 08:41 → HNL 09:20AS 1045	2h 51m Honolulu	HNL 12:11 → SMF 20:19AS 820	8h 38m	100%	71%
United Details →	OGG 12:00 → SFO 19:59UA 1726	56m San Francisco	SFO 20:55 → SMF 21:55UA 1862	6h 55m	86%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON