Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3230 at 06:19 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 3230 OKC 06:19 → DEN 07:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3232 OKC 19:14 → DEN 19:58 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3230 Southwest	OKC 06:19	DEN 07:02	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 4751 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 06:05	DEN 06:58	8%	5%	0.8%	94%
UA 2609 United Flight history →	OKC 09:01	DEN 10:17	18%	8%	0.7%	77%
WN 2081 Southwest	OKC 11:46	DEN 12:29	19%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 5490 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 11:30	DEN 12:28	20%	9%	0.8%	86%
WN 2748 Southwest	OKC 14:15	DEN 14:57	26%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4768 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 18:42	DEN 19:29	30%	11%	0.9%	72%
F9 1927 Frontier Flight history →	OKC 20:20	DEN 21:10	35%	12%	1.8%	80%worse than usual
UA 2422 United	OKC 17:09	DEN 18:28	36%	11%	0.8%	no record
WN 3232 Southwest	OKC 19:14	DEN 19:58	38%	10%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON