Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2170 at 05:58 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 2170 OKC 05:58 → DFW 07:06 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2812 OKC 19:04 → DFW 20:24 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2170 American	OKC 05:58	DFW 07:06	10%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2464 American	OKC 04:58	DFW 06:12	11%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 2272 American Flight history →	OKC 07:24	DFW 08:32	16%	6%	0.9%	86%
AA 6203 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	OKC 09:10	DFW 10:25	19%	9%	0.7%	86%
AA 2882 American	OKC 11:02	DFW 12:10	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 2734 American	OKC 12:37	DFW 13:53	19%	7%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3591 Envoy	OKC 19:49	DFW 21:01	25%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 2929 American Flight history →	OKC 15:10	DFW 16:24	25%	9%	0.9%	72%
AA 1760 American	OKC 16:41	DFW 17:56	31%	9%	1.2%	no record
AA 2812 American Flight history →	OKC 19:04	DFW 20:24	32%	12%	1.2%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON