Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3233 at 07:54 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Safest bet that day WN 3233 OKC 07:54 → HOU 09:33 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4760 OKC 13:01 → HOU 14:41 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3233 Southwest	OKC 07:54	HOU 09:33	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1242 Southwest	OKC 18:14	HOU 19:53	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 4760 Southwest Flight history →	OKC 13:01	HOU 14:41	16%	3%	0.6%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON