tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:49, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Oklahoma City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OKC 05:49 → ATL 08:56DL 1184 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 13m 98% 81%
AmericanDetails → OKC 06:11 → CLT 09:38AA 2273 1h 19m Charlotte CLT 10:57 → MIA 12:58AA 2768 5h 47m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → OKC 06:05 → DEN 06:58UA 4751 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Denver DEN 09:32 → MIA 15:28UA 1418 8h 23m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → OKC 07:00 → ATL 10:10DL 1158 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 13:33 → MIA 15:31DL 1323 7h 31m 99% 70%
DeltaDetails → OKC 13:18 → ATL 16:30DL 2020 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → MIA 21:21DL 1588 7h 03m 99% 66%
AmericanDetails → OKC 07:24 → DFW 08:32AA 2272 1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:29 → MIA 14:29AA 656 6h 05m 93% 65%
UnitedDetails → OKC 13:43 → IAH 15:25UA 5531 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Houston IAH 18:30 → MIA 22:05UA 1829 7h 22m 97% 62%
AmericanDetails → OKC 15:10 → DFW 16:23AA 2929 3h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:19 → MIA 00:14 +1AA 2090 8h 04m 98% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON