Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1136 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 1136 OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 1125 OMA 13:40 → ATL 17:03 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1136 Delta Flight history →	OMA 05:25	ATL 08:42	6%	2%	1.1%	91%
DL 1157 Delta Flight history →	OMA 07:01	ATL 10:12	7%	3%	0.9%	93%
DL 2632 Delta Flight history →	OMA 10:51	ATL 14:18	9%	3%	1.0%	88%
DL 2364 Delta Flight history →	OMA 17:24	ATL 20:50	15%	7%	1.2%	84%
DL 1125 Delta Flight history →	OMA 13:40	ATL 17:03	16%	5%	0.9%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON