Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3246 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–40%.

Safest bet that day WN 3246 OMA 06:59 → DEN 07:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1516 OMA 19:19 → DEN 19:56 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3246 Southwest	OMA 06:59	DEN 07:37	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 1442 United Flight history →	OMA 06:00	DEN 06:49	6%	3%	0.9%	94%
WN 1788 Southwest	OMA 10:55	DEN 11:34	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
OO 5935 SkyWest	OMA 11:45	DEN 12:33	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2838 United Flight history →	OMA 09:06	DEN 09:55	19%	5%	0.7%	76%
UA 1195 United Flight history →	OMA 14:16	DEN 15:02	23%	9%	0.9%	85%
OO 5504 SkyWest	OMA 19:08	DEN 20:18	27%	10%	1.0%	no record
UA 1573 United	OMA 17:13	DEN 17:54	32%	10%	1.0%	no record
WN 3353 Southwest	OMA 16:59	DEN 17:36	34%	9%	0.7%	no record
F9 1127 Frontier Flight history →	OMA 19:18	DEN 20:04	40%	12%	1.2%	70%worse than usual
WN 1516 Southwest	OMA 19:19	DEN 19:56	40%	12%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON