Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2540 at 05:51 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2540 OMA 05:51 → DFW 07:49 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 2270 OMA 19:54 → DFW 21:45 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2540 American Flight history →	OMA 05:51	DFW 07:49	9%	3%	1.9%	89%
AA 2135 American	OMA 10:24	DFW 12:27	19%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 2823 American Flight history →	OMA 12:10	DFW 13:58	22%	6%	1.3%	63%
AA 2269 American Flight history →	OMA 16:18	DFW 18:15	33%	8%	2.0%	75%
AA 2270 American Flight history →	OMA 19:54	DFW 21:45	35%	11%	2.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON