Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 4995 at 17:04, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4995 Southwest	OMA 17:04	HOU 19:27	16%	8%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 12:11 → HOU 13:25DL 1195	8h 00m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	OMA 10:51 → ATL 14:18DL 2632	54m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	5h 31m	89%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON