Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1486 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–44%.

Safest bet that day UA 1486 OMA 05:56 → ORD 07:43 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4042 OMA 16:01 → ORD 17:35 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1486 United	OMA 05:56	ORD 07:43	10%	6%	1.6%	no record
OO 5385 SkyWest	OMA 08:03	ORD 09:52	20%	9%	3.1%	no record
AA 3197 American Flight history →	OMA 08:10	ORD 09:58	20%	7%	2.7%	89%
UA 600 United Flight history →	OMA 11:23	ORD 13:15	29%	16%	2.1%	80%
UA 1476 United Flight history →	OMA 18:40	ORD 20:34	34%	12%	1.5%	63%
AA 3739 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OMA 12:35	ORD 14:21	35%	17%	5.4%	88%worse than usual
OO 5511 SkyWest	OMA 13:43	ORD 15:25	37%	20%	6.0%	no record
MQ 3558 Envoy	OMA 20:04	ORD 21:32	37%	11%	4.7%	no record
UA 739 United Flight history →	OMA 15:13	ORD 17:05	37%	18%	1.7%	69%
AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	OMA 16:01	ORD 17:35	44%	19%	5.1%	93%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON