tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: WN 500 at 08:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 500 Southwest OMA 08:09 STL 09:34 5% 1% 0.8% no record
WN 3403 Southwest OMA 17:55 STL 19:21 24% 5% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:00 → MSP 07:21DL 3864 · flown by SkyWest 1h 41m Minneapolis MSP 09:02 → STL 10:39DL 1289 4h 39m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → OMA 05:25 → ATL 08:42DL 1136 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:09 → STL 11:00DL 1400 5h 35m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → OMA 07:01 → ATL 10:12DL 1157 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 12:16 → STL 13:03DL 566 6h 02m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → OMA 06:00 → DEN 06:49UA 1442 2h 46m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 6h 42m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → OMA 05:51 → DFW 07:49AA 2540 2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:25 → STL 12:22AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 6h 31m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → OMA 06:25 → DTW 09:28DL 4110 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 6h 40m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → OMA 10:52 → MSP 12:15DL 3831 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Minneapolis MSP 15:12 → STL 16:51DL 1224 5h 59m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → OMA 17:24 → ATL 20:50DL 2364 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 6h 29m 97% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → OMA 11:23 → ORD 13:15UA 600 1h 05m Chicago ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000 4h 23m 73% 46%
UnitedDetails → OMA 18:40 → ORD 20:34UA 1476 55m Chicago ORD 21:29 → STL 22:48UA 4576 · flown by GoJet 4h 08m 59% 42%
UnitedDetails → OMA 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 739 47m Chicago ORD 17:52 → STL 18:48UA 4518 · flown by GoJet 3h 35m 36% 21%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON